On the Different Approaches of Measuring Uncertainty Shocks

As uncertainty has become an increasingly prominent source of business cycle fluctuations, various uncertainty proxies have been proposed in the literature. This paper shows that uncertainty measures based on realized variables fluctuate more than the measures that are based on forecasts. More precisely, the variation in the realized cross-sectional standard deviation of profit growth and stock returns is larger than the variation in the forecast standard deviation. Moreover, the forecast standard deviation of profit growth and stock returns are negatively or uncorrelated, the uncertainty measures increase stock returns due to a risk premium, but they decrease profit growth. Suggested Reviewers: Kevin D. Salyer PhD Professor , Economics, University of California, Davis [email protected] Prof. Salyer is a proficient economist and highly familiar with uncertainty and its impact on the macroeconomy. Victor Dorofeenko PhD Researcher, Economics, Institut fuer Hoehere Studien [email protected] Mr. Dorofeenko is highly familiar with uncertainty and its impact on the economy with respect to both theoretical and empirical models. Harris Dellas PhD Professor, Economics, University of Bern [email protected] Prof. Dellas is a very proficient economist, familiar with the latest research of uncertainty and its impact on the economy. On the Different Approaches of Measuring Uncertainty Shocks Johannes Strobel, University of Regensburg∗